02 March 2016
Huge night for Donald Trump
Super Tuesday was a huge night for Donald Trump, but perhaps not for the reason you would expect.
Sure Trump won most of the states that voted, but in a divided field that's to be expected.
Donald Trump's path to victory depends on everyone staying in the race. As such, the most important thing for Trump was to hope that Cruz got results that convinced him to stay in the race.
Cruz has no path to the nomination. We've now passed all the states where Cruz was on friendliest terrain, and he couldn't muster much in the way of stopping Trump, except in two states where social conservatives control the electorate (Iowa and Oklahoma) and at home in Texas.
Moreover, Oklahoma doesn't award delegates to the winner', so no one tried to win it, because winning it wasn't worth anything on a delegate level.
The question is whether Cruz recognizes the reality that he has no path to the nomination. If Cruz does, Trump is a long shot for the nomination because winner take all states are coming and Trump can probably only win those in a divided field. If Cruz doesn't, then Trump should waltz to the nomination with the 35-40% of the vote that he's got.
It's pretty tough to recognize reality sometimes. That's what Trump is counting on -- and that's why it was a huge night for Donald Trump.