25 August 2014
Wendy Davis is 10 points behind where Bill White was 4 years ago
How many Texans would bet anything at even money that Wendy Davis does better than Bill White on Election Day?
Four years ago today, two polls had Bill White within the margin of error of Rick Perry. Zogby had him down just 3, and Hill Research Consultants had him down 1. Right now we've got polls out that show Wendy Davis down 8 (Rasmussen) and down 18 (trade group poll). Most of the recent numbers are closer to the trade group poll than to Rasmussen.
People tend to forget that Bill White actually ran a decent race. He spent lots of time talking about himself being a fiscal conservative, despite the fact that his record as mayor of Houston reflected the contrary. Still, he tried to convince Texans that he shared our values. It didn't work, because 2010 was not a year in which Texans were likely to be fooled.
On the contrary, Wendy Davis hasn't even tried to convince Texans that she shares our values. Her only real feint in that direction was so awkward that she managed to lose support on the left while highlighting her own anti-gun record. As we now say in Texas politics, "oops."
Or maybe coming out for open carry was simply a reflection of her home state Rhode Island values?
[Yes, somehow Rhode Island is more pro-gun than Texas when it comes to handgun open carry. We have Joe Straus to thank for that.]
Wendy Davis has never seemed to understand that being Obama's pick to turn Texas blue was going to hurt her. And maybe that is the ultimate sign that she doesn't share our values.
12 August 2014
Random attack ads in early August
My first thought was, "did they even focus group this?" It's not a good ad. It's slow, it barely mentions Greg Abbott, it requires assuming bad faith by Abbott to be effective when they haven't built the message that would enable belief.
My second thought was that it's possible that it did ok in focus groups. Focus groups aren't going to hit the remote to change the channel, because they can't. They'll try to suggest cute phrases like "thank God this time Greg Abbott lost." On the other hand, you'd think they'd point out that the ridiculous final screen of
"another insider, not working for you" is not supported by anything in the ad.
As it has been throughout the campaign, the message is inconsistent. Sometimes it seems like she's running for governor of her native Rhode Island, and then the next day she awkwardly tries to pander to Texas value by flip-flopping on gun rights.
So Wendy Davis is spending money to try to temporarily drive Abbott's poll numbers down in the hope that the left will keep writing big checks to a candidate down 10 points.
Throw something against the wall and see if it sticks. Even if it is the opposite of what you said yesterday -- it's the Wendy Davis strategy.
01 August 2014
Texas Democrats have Robert Earl Keen.
Texas Republicans have Pat Green:
Note that Greg Abbott sticker on the guitar.