McNeely: Strayhorn needs new primary voters

Dave McNeely, longtime Statesman columnist, writes:

For Carole Keeton Strayhorn to have any chance to unseat Gov. Rick Perry in the 2006 Republican primary, she needs a significant boost in primary turnout.

The most who have ever voted in a Texas Republican primary for governor was in 1990. That year, 855,231 turned out for the white-hot contest between Clayton Williams Jr., Tom Luce, and Kent Hance - even while an even hotter street brawl was being fought on the Democratic side between Ann Richards, Jim Mattox and Mark White.

By contrast, the fewest voters in a Democratic primary came in the lackluster year of 1998, when 654,154 voted. Republican Gov. George W. Bush was seeking re-election and was considered a shoo-in. In fact, the largest Democratic turnout that year was for attorney general, not governor or lieutenant governor, elections which were uncontested.

It was the first time in decades that the Democratic primary turnout fell below 1 million. But even that meager turnout was 57,315 more than the GOP primary, and Democrats have always outpolled Republicans in non-presidential primaries.

At the same time, in the last three non-presidential general elections, the voter turnout has almost tripled the combined primary election vote. Clearly, there are plenty of people who care enough to vote who might be attracted to a primary.

It's possible Gov. Perry has irked enough people - particularly in the education community - that even some who voted for him in the past will turn thumbs down.

His staff has boasted that in a primary, no one can get to the right of Perry, who has shamelessly panderied to the religious right. But that leaves the center - if a center develops in the modern GOP primary.

That's the basic gist of the story: there's never been a very competitive Republican primary (sorry, the AG primaries don't quite count). Why? Well, some might say that the hand of Karl Rove tended to guide competitive candidates towards offices whereby they wouldn't face an opponent.

How many folks will vote? The folks who vote in the GOP primary are now the kingmakers like the Democratic primary voters.

Lots of folks base their campaign plans on changing the turnout model into one more favorable to them. We generally have a name for these candidates: losers.

I'm not being silly. Yes, there will be more people that vote in this primary, but plans to radically alter the turnout generally just don't work (and no, I don't think BushCheney04 is a counterexample). Strayhorn has her work cut out for her. Maybe she can do it, but the odds are against her.

Posted by Evan @ 07/18/05 03:47 PM

 
 

Previous Entry | Home | Next Entry



Comments

No comments yet

Add Comments

No flames or impolite behavior. HTML will be stripped. URLs will be transformed into hyperlinks.

 


Comments must be approved before being published.

SITE MENU

+ Rick Perry vs World
+ About Me

+ Archives

+ Email:
  perryvsworld* at *gmail dot com

DISCLAIMER

All content © Rick Perry vs. World and the respective authors.

Rick Perry vs. World is powered by Nucleus.

Site design and Nucleus customization by Kevin Whited.


ARCHIVES

+March 2017
+February 2017
+January 2017
+December 2016
+November 2016
+October 2016
+September 2016
+August 2016
+July 2016
+June 2016
+May 2016
+April 2016
+March 2016
+February 2016
+January 2016
+December 2015
+November 2015
+October 2015
+September 2015
+August 2015
+July 2015
+June 2015
+May 2015
+April 2015
+March 2015
+February 2015
+January 2015
+December 2014
+November 2014
+October 2014
+September 2014
+August 2014
+July 2014
+June 2014
+May 2014
+April 2014
+March 2014
+February 2014
+January 2014
+December 2013
+November 2013
+October 2013
+September 2013
+August 2013
+July 2013
+June 2013
+May 2013
+April 2013
+March 2013
+February 2013
+January 2013
+December 2012
+November 2012
+October 2012
+September 2012
+August 2012
+July 2012
+June 2012
+May 2012
+April 2012
+March 2012
+February 2012
+January 2012
+December 2011
+November 2011
+October 2011
+September 2011
+August 2011
+July 2011
+June 2011
+May 2011
+April 2011
+March 2011
+February 2011
+January 2011
+December 2010
+November 2010
+October 2010
+September 2010
+August 2010
+July 2010
+June 2010
+May 2010
+April 2010
+March 2010
+February 2010
+January 2010
+December 2009
+November 2009
+October 2009
+September 2009
+August 2009
+July 2009
+June 2009
+May 2009
+April 2009
+March 2009
+February 2009
+January 2009
+December 2008
+November 2008
+October 2008
+September 2008
+August 2008
+July 2008
+June 2008
+May 2008
+April 2008
+March 2008
+February 2008
+January 2008
+December 2007
+November 2007
+October 2007
+September 2007
+August 2007
+July 2007
+June 2007
+May 2007
+April 2007
+March 2007
+February 2007
+January 2007
+December 2006
+November 2006
+October 2006
+September 2006
+August 2006
+July 2006
+June 2006
+May 2006
+April 2006
+March 2006
+February 2006
+January 2006
+December 2005
+November 2005
+October 2005
+September 2005
+August 2005
+July 2005
+June 2005
+May 2005
+April 2005
+March 2005
+February 2005
+January 2005
+December 2004
Links:
+Online Ticket Sales
+Sell Tickets Online
+Acton MBA
+EVN
+Ethereum News
+Online event registration
+Reserved Seating
+Cory Crow
+How online ticketing works
+How to prepare for CFA exams