Texas predictions

I'll take Paul Burka's quiz:

1. In 1853, Elish Pease won the governship of Texas with 36.67% of the vote. Will Rick Perry do better or worse than Pease?
Better.

2. What percentage of the vote, in round numbers, will each of the four leading contenders for governor receive?
On September 14th, I predicted Perry 44, Bell 31, Friedman 13, Strayhorn 10, and Werner 2.

It was probably a little silly to think that Strayhorn would collapse that much. I'm going to keep Friedman at 13. Give Strayhorn 17. Bell 29%. Werner 2% (just cracking the 1.5% mark) and Perry the rest, which would be 38%. Except I remember 2002, where Perry very much outperformed the polls. On that basis and party lines, I'm adjusting it to 41% Perry, 28% Bell, Strayhorn 17, Friedman 13, and Werner 1.

Lots of odd possible iterations for this one.

3. The partisan division of the Texas House of Representatives is currently 86 Republicans and 64 Democrats. What will the partisan division be when the 80th Legislature is sworn in come January?
I don't really know. My other predictions have been pessimistic, so I'm going to go with 82 GOP, 68 D. No. I'm going to change it to 83 GOP, 69 D in my last breath of optimism.

4. How many statewide offices will Democrats win and what races will they win?
I'm not that much of a pessimist. Zero.

5. What percentage of the vote, in round numbers, will Henry Bonilla receive in the 23rd congressional district election?
51. Total guess.

6. Who will win the race between Nick Lampson and Shelley Sekula-Gibbs in the 22nd congressional district and what will the spread be, in round numbers?
I'm assuming Burka means the general, and not the special. It might be awhile until we know the answer to this, with the write-ins and all. I think there'll be a significant undervote. I think Smither will take 11% or so. Shelley gets to 33%. Lampson has 55% of the people that voted, but it's really less than that because of the undervote. Yes, I know the numbers don't add up. I don't really have a clue.

7. After Kay Bailey Hutchison, what Republican candidate will receive the most votes statewide?
Dewhurst or Abbott. I'm gonna pick Dewhurst, despite what Burka says. Total guess.

8. Which race for the state House of Representives will have the smallest margin of victory?
I don't really have a clue. I'll go with HD118.

9. Which statewide race will produce the best showing for the Libertarian candidate?
Isn't this kinda like betting on whether heads or tails will come up? I'll go with Tom Oxford, on the theory that Burka is counting most votes and not vote percentage.

10. Other than Rick Perry, which Republican statewide candidate (NOT counting judicial candidates) will have the lowest percentage of the vote?
I would've guessed Don Willett. I don't really have a clue at this, so I'll guess Todd Staples.

Other predictions: Shelley wins the special. Edwards wins in CD17, and Dr. Ron Paul wins in CD14. I assume Lamar Smith will avoid a runoff.

Posted by Evan @ 11/07/06 12:30 AM

 
 

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