Early vote versus election day 2012 Republican Texas Senate primary
David Dewhurst 48%
Ted Cruz 30%
David Dewhurst 41%
Ted Cruz 38%
David Dewhurst won the early voting by almost 18%. Then he barely won the election day voting by 3%. Every single one of the 7 other candidates on the ballot basically stayed the same. Put more succinctly, David Dewhurst lost over 7% in the final days of the election...and it all went to Ted Cruz.
So what happened?
First of all, Ted Cruz had a good closing stream of endorsements that solidified his claim to be the conservative in the race. Second, David Dewhurst closed with his racial attacks (or dog whistle, if you will). They were universally condemned as false and bigoted.
David Dewhurst failed in his imitation of Al Sharpton racial politics. Dewhurst shouldn't have stooped so low as to try to play on some nebulous race-baiting prejudice that he incorrectly thinks Texans hold.
Right now, Ted Cruz is surging with a massive 15% swing that occurred over just a few days. Grab some popcorn, folks, because this is going to be a fun runoff to watch.
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