2012 Texas Senate primary prediction

I had to go on the record about 10 days ago when I got asked for my prediction. My response then was, "David Dewhurst won't break 45%." In the days that followed, the TT, BOR, and PPP polls came out. I didn't see anything that changed my mind much.

The big X factor is how people react to David Dewhurst's Al Sharpton-style race-baiting, and the subsequent newspaper coverage. Dewhurst was long-rumored to be contemplating the race card, and play the race card he did. We're in ugly and uncharted territory. And Dewhurst is spending twice as much on a weekly basis as KBH and Perry did in 2010.

So here we go:

Dewhurst 45%
Cruz 33%
Leppert 18%
Everyone else 4%

Posted by Evan @ 05/28/12 03:26 PM

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Comments

Ted Cruz, a Constitutionist and not a day too soon. Send Mrs. Granger home, a party hack if there ever was one.

Posted by Russ @ 05/28/12 08:54 PM

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