1 week out predictions
Dick Murray predicts:
Perry 44% Hutchison 37% Medina 19%
White 65% Shami 18% Others 17%
There's still alot that can happen, but I'll go on the record as well.
Perry 49 Hutchison 37 Medina 14
White 49 Shami 20 Others 31
My Dem primary guess is largely based on recent history, but I might be wrong. It'd be awfully embarassing for White to face a runoff, but I'm inclined to think that he will. Whether it will be against Shami, I'm not so sure, but probably.
As for my GOP predictions, I largely assume that Perry and KBH will find a way to disseminate some of the crazy things that Medina has said, as it doesn't yet seem to have really filtered through. Also, polls would tend to overstate someone like her. It's somewhat surprising to me if Perry avoids the runoff, but I have him as about a coinflip to do so. Normally I would assume that his upper bound would be about whatever the polls say he is, and maybe that's the case here. However, I assume that his campaign can knock off some of the Medina supporters into his camp. I think he ends up in the 47-51% range.
Perry 49% and Medina 14%?
I wish I could get a side bet on whether Perry has a 35% lead on Medina. That seems very unlikely.
I hope to see Perry 41%, Medina 30%, Hutchison 29% and then watch as Medina grabs most of Hutchison's supporters in the run off.
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