Another day, another poll
Texas Credit Union League poll, by Hamilton Beattie (D) and Voter/Consumer Research (R), 800 Likely Voters, from 9/5 to 9/18
Rick Perry 42 %
Chris Bell 20%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn 18%
Kinky Friedman 12%
James Werner 2%Fav/Unfav
Perry 55/27
Strayhorn 41/26
Friedman 27/31
Bell 23/16
Werner 10/6Perry pulls 71% of the 'phant vote, Bell pulls 44% of the Donks.
Friedman pulls 6% of the GOP vote, while getting 14% from the Donk vote. Meanwhile, Strayhorn also gets more support from the Donks than the GOP, 20% to 15% respectively.
George W. Bush Approval/Disapproval
58/39
Couple of quick comments:
1. Yikes! A 13 day sample! Ok, no campaign pollster will ever have a poll in the field for 13 days. Both of these firms do campaign polls, but they weren't doing this poll for a campaign. They were doing it for a third party. 13 days is a long time. Generally, you want to have your polls in the field for 3 days or less.
2. Remember, I pass polls along. They are good for data points if you're a junkie. I even pass along the worthless Zogby internet polls, and have since I started this blog. Why? Because if you carefully consider what Zogby's worthless polls are telling you, occasionally you can glean a nugget of truth. However, buyers beware.
3. This poll started right as the Labor Day ads came on. So, some of the sample is from people unlikely to have seen campaign ads, and some of the sample is from people who likely have seen at least an ad or two. This makes the sample somewhat less reliable, though still way, way better than Zogby's internet polls, and definitely still a sample worth thinking about.
4. Frankly, because of point 3, I wonder whether the pollsters compared the first half of the data to the second half of the data. Because those are different samples.
Posted by Evan @ 09/22/06 07:27 AM
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Comments
Evan,
Actually, the Texas race is a mature one, polls used internally are cascading, comparing movement between numbers as well
I'm not surprized many Republican insiders believe (not hope but really believe) that Perry will be the first politician to get near a majority with three opponents in double digits.
Posted by EricPWJohnson @ 09/26/06 04:28 AM
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