Rick Perry will not be the VP nominee in 2016
Paul Burka has to win the award for Earliest Veepstakes Speculation. Put aside the fact that the Veepstakes is pretty silly in and of itself, speculating before we even know who is going to run for the nomination is particularly impressive.
Out of Rick Perry, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, Governor Perry is by far the least likely to be picked as VP. I can't even see a scenario where Rick Perry even makes someone's shortlist.
If you look back at who gets picked to be the Republican VP nominee, you'll notice that it is very definitely not people who fit Rick Perry's profile.
2012: Rep. Paul Ryan
2008: Gov. Sarah Palin
2000: Sec. Dick Cheney
96: Rep. Jack Kemp
88: Sen. Dan Quayle
80: CIA director/ Rep. George HW Bush
76: Sen. Bob Dole
Notice how many of those were governors? Just one, and what is interesting about Sarah Palin is that she was purposely a high-risk pick -- John McCain's lackluster, ad-hoc campaign needed to throw a Hail Mary. She was undefined in national politics, but what little identity she had at that point was as a maverick. She'd been governor for just a year and a half in a small state several timezones removed from most of America's population.
While it isn't impossible that the VP pick is a governor, being the VP isn't really something that a governor is likely to be good at. If you look at the Democrats's VP picks, you'll see a very clear trend: senators. Biden, Edwards, Lieberman, Gore, Bentsen, Ferraro, Mondale. None of them governors, and it's worth noting that Rep. Geraldine Ferraro is the only non-Senator picked by the Dems -- another high-risk pick by a weak campaign looking for a Hail Mary.
In fact, if you were to look to history, John Cornyn fits the profile of a VP pick much better than Cruz, Paul, or Perry. Strangely, Burka didn't even mention him.
Posted by Evan @ 06/11/14 07:19 AM
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Cornyn doesn't get a potential GOP Presidential nominee anything. Texas isn't in play, he doesn't excite the base, he doesn't check any particular "historic" box, he's too old for typical VP pick (unless to balance someone particularly young), and there are others better suited for the VP "attack dog" roll (though no one has really done well at that since Cheney and (arguably) Edwards).
Posted by Lawrence Person @ 06/11/14 03:06 PM
I agree. He's less than 1% likely to be VP. The others are probably even less.
Posted by Evan_PvW @ 06/11/14 03:55 PM
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