Presidential probablities

Mike Allen put this in playbook this morning:

PRESIDENT OBAMA’s chance of being reelected: 75%

MITT ROMNEY’s chance of being the GOP nominee: 20%

JON HUNTSMAN’s chance of being the GOP nominee: 15%

I'm pretty sure I said publicly before and after the election that most people were underrating Obama's re-election chances, but 75%? That is puzzling. Intrade has Obama at about 58-59% likelihood of winning re-election, which seems about right, if a few points on the low side. The key factors are 1) economic numbers and 2) quality of Republican nominee.

Meanwhile Romney's chances are probably understated a little bit, whereas I don't even think Huntsman has a 5% chance of being president. 15% is quite high.

Incidentally, Intrade has Marco Rubio with only a 2% chance of even running for president. You've got to take illiquid contracts with a huge grain of salt, and given that Rubio didn't rule out running for president two days ago, I'd say his chances of running are higher than 2%.

Posted by Evan @ 01/07/11 12:51 PM


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