Simon on Bloomberg
Roger Simon puts the kibosh on Bloomberg running:
I had lunch with a strong Bloomberg supporter last November, and when I asked him how Bloomberg was going to get to 270 electoral votes, the supporter said, "We don't need to get to 270. We just need to keep the others from getting to 270."Many national pundits seem to think that Bloomberg would draw more from the left than the right. I strongly disagree; Bloomberg running would be a disaster for Republicans.
Wrong. If that happens, the race would be decided by the House of Representatives, which has a Democratic majority.
Charlie Cook, a very savvy political analyst, wrote recently: "The most interesting scenario would be if Bloomberg were to win a plurality of the electoral votes and siphon off enough votes from the left to push the Democratic nominee into third place. Could a Democratic House really pick a third-place finisher to be president, or might they opt for a politically compatible independent who finished first?"
The simple answer is: Yes, the Democratic House would vote for the third-place Democratic nominee over Bloomberg, because that is what party politics is all about.
And would a Democratic House pick a third place Democrat to be president? Yes -- unless maybe Bloomberg offered to switch back to being a Democrat -- and I don't think it would be that much of an issue. If I recall correctly, he used Democratic consultants in his first mayoral bid.
Perhaps the most interesting part of the article, however, was Simon's conclusion that Bloomberg is smart enough to realize that he can't win, and thus won't run. It remains to be seen if Simon is right, or if Bloomberg will listen to the political consultants whispering sweet nothings in his ear.
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any chance of you explaining your reasons why Bloomberg hurts the GOP more than the Democrats?
If he's running against another (GOP) New York mayor, then, yes, your contention makes sense. otherwise, i'm not sure i can build a case.
Posted by yet another rice alum @ 05/26/07 09:05 AM
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