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Can anyone tell me what John McCain's message matrix is?
I didn't think so. Obama is eminently beatable, but McCain isn't doing it right now.
Posted by Evan @ 07/08/08 03:36 AM
John McCain is opening an office in Jersey:
For the first time in 16 years, a Republican presidential campaign is opening New Jersey headquarters and paying for full-time staffers in the state , a sign that John McCain thinks he can win here.In another sign, McCain is also scheduled to hold a town hall meeting in Pemberton on Friday in his third trip to the state this year.
Oh. my. gosh. wow. dumb.
If I were John McCain's strategist, I'd have a very simple rule. If I couldn't see a mountain, I wouldn't hold an event and I wouldn't air ads. With the exception of Florida and Northern Virginia and some other scattered ones as well, this would hold pretty well.
Posted by Evan @ 06/13/08 08:44 AM
...for not nominating Hillary Clinton. I think political dynasties add significant risk to the long-term stability of democracies.
And hey, even though it was only a tie (that was broken by better tactical decisions by her opponent), there were enough Democrats out there who didn't want to turn the US into a state of political dynasty. Good on them.
Posted by Evan @ 06/11/08 12:40 AM
Things I know about the general election:
1. McCain and his campaign overstate the degree to which the American people know his bio.
2. McCain and his campaign circulate with too many politicos who remember what a thorn he has been in Bush's side. The American people don't remember.
3. The map will largely be the same. I've said this for the last 6 months until I was blue in the face, while many very smart people were saying silly things about the map was going to change.
4. If Obama is elected president, he will rival Jimmy Carter for incompetent governing (although let's hope he deregulates some things like Jimmy...though don't bet on Obama having any libertarian impulses.) and serve only one term.
5. As I've said many times, Obama has much more variability as a general election candidate than any candidate I can remember. He could crash and burn worse than Dukakis, or he could sweep Democrats to 60 votes in the Senate. Still, in terms of probability, Obama benefits from such a fantastically fabulous political climate for Democrats that he is a slight favorite. If he weren't such a miserable general election candidate, he'd be a shoo-in. [In fairness, Edwards and Clinton are also pretty bad general election candidates.]
6. I do not envy McCain's dance with Bush. He needs to run as far away as possible. If I were running the McCain campaign, I would be looking for every single potential break I could have with Bush.
7. Barack Obama will continue to get a pass on being the most liberal member of the Senate. Can you imagine if the Republicans nominated Tom Coburn? Every article would declare that the nominee was known as an "arch-conservative." Barack Obama gets to slip by without the liberal label. Ladies and gentleman, the political media of America. Heart them.
8. McCain has a bit of variability in him as a candidate as well. It is not impossible that he could blow up.
9. McCain brings quite a bit of variability as president. He could be fantastic as president, he could be as bad as Jimmy Carter or Harding, or he could die in office after a year.
10. I will shed no tears if McCain loses, though I will fear for my country.
11. It would be very exciting to have a black president. The very likely prospect of the first black president being an epic failure is a sad inherent risk to that excitement.
12. Our first view of President Obama are his actions on campaign finance. Remember that pledge he made to take public money?
13. Number 13 is something I have no idea about. Barack Obama has arguably organized his campaign around the idea that he can transcend politics in order to get things done ("Yes We Can"/"Change We Can Believe In"). Yet, arguably, he has never done this in his life. Yes, there is a Republican state senator he's best buds with (but didn't actually like him enough to endorse him, if I recall correctly). John McCain has an excellent track record of working across the aisle to get things done. Comparing the time while they have both been senators provides a massive contrast.
When you organize your campaign around a flawed principle, you very well might lose. (John Kerry: I served in Vietnam; Hillary Clinton's "ready on day 1", HW Bush's experience.)
If I get around to it, maybe I'll discuss some of these points.
Posted by Evan @ 06/09/08 03:18 AM
If you've been paying attention, you'd note that there's a non-negligible (though still small) possibility that we could have a filibuster-proof Democratic supermajority in the US Senate starting in January 2009.
That should make you very, very scared.
Posted by Evan @ 05/21/08 09:40 PM
Just a thought: if Democrats like Biden and Pelosi had simply ignored Bush's comments to the Knesset, instead of exploding in response, would anyone have noticed Bush's comments?
I don't know if Bush's comments in Israel were about Obama, but even assuming they were*, haven't they just made Obama's apparent wish-washiness on Israel front page news? The Obama campaign is already worried about its relationship with American Jewish voters because of previous Obama comments.
*It's easy to assume they were about Obama, but it's also pretty common for Bush to go to the "Others say..." line as a way of countering counter-arguments. Since he was apparently arguing against this position, it's perhaps not so clear that they were about Obama. Plus, there's a pretty strong tradition that foreign policy disagreements end at the water's edge. Still, ol' Biden and Pelosi have managed to ensure that it will filter down to voters as Obama's weakness to voters. Doesn't sound like good politics to me.
Posted by Evan @ 05/15/08 03:00 PM
If you would've told me two years ago that the supposedly de facto nominee of the Republican or Democratic party would get blown out in a primary of large turnout by over 40%, I would've laughed and said that was impossible. "Don't be silly."
If you'd then told me that the media was collectively yawning, I'd have thought you delusional.
Seriously though, it is crazy to me that 75% of the primary voters in a traditionally heavy Democratic state could reject the de facto nominee of the party.
Posted by Evan @ 05/14/08 08:51 AM
As we wait to find out whether Hillary did in fact pull out Indiana, I'm seeing some speculation that Hillary might drop out.*
If so, that'd be utterly inexplicable. Why stay in this long only to drop out before you're going to win West Virginia by 30% in 7 days and crystallize your argument that Obama can't connect with white working class voters? Follow that up with a win in KY and a close loss in Oregon (I assume, haven't checked the demographics), and Hillary can reasonably continue to claim momentum.
Nothing has changed in the race for nomination. Everything has happened exactly how it was foreseen to happen back in early to mid February. Clinton and Obama are tied, in every sense of the word. But Hillary has momentum now. Or seems to have momentum because she now has demographically-friendly primaries, not caucuses. In truth, there was never really ever a time in which Hillary or Obama had any sort of significant bandwagon effect/momentum. Barack and Hillary have fought to a draw; except that Obama is a prohibitive favorite to win the nomination because Democrats know they can't compete in the long-term if they lose their near monopoloy on black votes. Obama and Axelrod made the correct strategic decision to invest resources in caucus states, whereas Hillary and Bill (her primary strategist all along; don't be fooled) hubristically thought the delegate count wouldn't matter. So now, we're at the end, and it's a draw. Hillary can only hope that she can suade superdelegates with the appearance of momentum. Though it's false momentum, people are easily fooled -- superdelegrates and media types included -- and they'll look at Hillary's string of mostly victories and probably be impressed. Will it be enough? Probably not, but the writing was on the wall the day after Super Tuesday (Feb 6, if i recall correctly).
Or at least, that's what Clinton's campaign has to be hoping. Because otherwise, why would she have stayed in this long?
Stranger things have happened. But if HRC drops out for BHO now, it would defy logic.
*This is probably worth a separate post -- but I don't put too much time into blogging these days (including this post, obviously) -- most of the speculation is overblown on the deleterious effects on the Democratic nominee's chances to win in November (and further it helps them in downballot races). Yes, it has increased McCain's chances, but, among other things, politicos tend to forget that McCain must re-introduce himself and he can't do that right now. That will make the convention very important for McCain, as he MUST cement himself as completely different from George W Bush to have a chance at victory. Further, ceterus paribus, McCain is a significantly better candidate than Obama or Hillary. If this weren't such a drastically Democrat-friendly political environment, McCain would win hands-down. As it is, it will be very close.
Posted by Evan @ 05/06/08 11:59 PM
Posted by Evan @ 05/04/08 02:48 AM
The missing element in the media coverage of Joe Andrews' defection to Obama from Hillary seems to be that clearly Andrews has realized that Obama is starting to look weak, and since it is too late to deny him the nomination, thus he must switch to Obama.
As the USNews Daily Bulletin put it:
There is an odd dichotomy emerging in the media coverage of the Democratic presidential race emerging this morning. On one hand, the media is seeing former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew's defection to Barack Obama's camp as a sign that superdelegates are beginning to move towards his candidacy, and give the move extensive coverage. On the other, there are a number of items of good news for Hillary Clinton – polls showing her in a dead heat in Indiana and one showing her competitive in North Carolina, which was expected to be an Obama stronghold.
It is ironic that Obama's weakness may spur quite a few of the superdelegates to make their decision.
Posted by Evan @ 05/02/08 01:32 PM
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