Whither Dan Patrick?

Paul Burka writes about Dan Patrick's electoral future:

Even before Dan Patrick won his Senate seat, speculation around town was rampant that he would run for governor in 2010. I think it's wrong. He doesn't have the name identification or the money to make that race, and he would be up against a formidable array of political talent. But I think he will be a candidate for statewide office in '10 -- not for governor, but for lieutenant governor. And I think he has positioned himself very well for that race.

Speculation is fun!

I think Burka is right that Patrick probably hasn't irrevocably decided to run for governor. However, I think he's definitely considering it depending on who gets in the race. Picture this: Kay Bailey Hutchison announces a run for governor.* Dewhurst also announces. AG Greg Abbott and Land Commish Jerry Patterson both announce for LG. Where does Patrick go? He runs for governor. Patrick has to think he's got a good chance of getting into a runoff against Hutchison and Dewhurst. Neither the Senator nor the Lieutenant Governor are particularly strong conservatives, in the view of GOP primary voters. Once he gets into a runoff, who knows? Besides, Patrick can run as the conservative outsider much more easily against Dewhurst and/or Hutchison than he can against Abbott and/or Patterson.

Anyway, the precise scenario I described of who enters the race has under a 50% chance of happening, but is probably more likely than any other scenario at this point.

* I know, it's tough to believe, given how many times KBH has flirted publically with running for governor. But she's really serious this time...right? Actually, I think she is. She realized that she had an uphill run against Perry in a GOP primary, and she decided to stay in the Senate. But now, you've got to think Hutchison starts most gubernatorial scenarios as the favorite.

Posted by Evan @ 05/22/07 03:58 PM

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Comments

Personally, I think Mr. Perry has weakened himself by ramming the Trans Texas Toll-road through with little debate. The public outcry is still building over that issue and it may well bring down his chances of a record 3rd term. His arrogance is appalling, to me, Trans Texas looks like a huge land grab with no civil recourse to land owners! Go Dan Go!

Posted by Steve Jackson @ 05/25/07 09:19 AM

Under that scenario who runs for KBH's senate seat?

Sessions? Hensarling? Williams?

Posted by AdmiralChris @ 05/28/07 02:21 PM

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