CD23 digest

1. The DCCC has decided to play. Via Kuff, here's what Swing State Project reports the DCCC has been doing on the independent expenditure front:

11/29: $163k (media buy and ad production)
12/01: $43k (direct mail), $9k (media buy and ad production)
12/02: $16k (phonebanking)
12/04: $42k (direct mail), $9k (ad production)
12/06: $497k (media buy), $785 (phonebanking), $91k (direct mail)

2. SurveyUSA shows the race as Bonilla 53 - Rodriguez 46. Only 1% undecided? Hmm. 471 Likely Voters, margin of error +/- 4.6%, 12/1-12/3. The crosstabs show some interesting things:

1. Bonilla has 94% of the GOP vote, while Rodriguez has 89% of the Dem vote, and edges Bonilla 51-48 among independents.

2. Bonilla beats Rodriguez 70-30 among Anglos, but among Hispanics, flip it to get 72-27 Rodriguez. However, the poll weights (I believe it's weighted, anyway) Anglo turnout to 59% of the electorate, and Hispanics at 36%.

3. The poll asks who they voted for on election day. 50% say Bonilla, which is correct, of course. But 30% say Rodriguez, which is substantially more than he actually got on election day.

The sample's result is from before Bonilla launched his recent attacks on Rodriguez.

It'll be interesting to see how much money the House committees decide to spend on turnout.

Posted by Evan @ 12/07/06 08:25 PM


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