Blum & Weprin poll

Dallas Morning News commissioned a poll done by Blum & Weprin:

10/29 - 11/3, 823 likely voters, +/- 3.5

Perry 39%
Bell 22
Strayhorn 18
Friedman 11

This election cycle was pretty much a perfect storm for the Dems. They had attack dogs to drive up Perry's unfavorables, allowing Chris Bell to get to the end of the campaign undefined. In this state, that's good for a Democrat. However, Bell won't be able to cobble together enough of those anti-Perry voters to win.

I suppose you could say that if there had been a strong Democrat who'd wanted to run in March, then that person matched against Perry might have a chance. But of course, who could've known then that the election cycle would be as it is.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 08:14 PM

 
 

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Comments

Well I guess thats it then. According to you Perry is the decided victor. But don't forget the 71% of people that could not bother to get out and vote. Or those who have decided to jump ship from their party. I am fed up with career politicians, and I am throwing my support for Kinky, and anyone else who is not a career politician!
Beware the Kinky VOTE!

Posted by robert @ 11/06/06 02:31 AM


Evan,

Ummm. Bell is 17 pts behind....

Posted by EricPWJohnson @ 11/06/06 11:28 PM


You could Also say that Bell has negatives of over 70% same For Strayhorn and nearly 90% for Kinky.

Just a thought

Posted by EricPWJohnson @ 11/06/06 11:29 PM


Eric --

i'm not sure what your point is for either. This could've been the perfect storm, but even then Bell couldn't win. That's my point.

Posted by PvW_Evan @ 11/06/06 11:31 PM


Evan,

Well

I guess my point is this we have had two years of negatives about republicans but those negatives, IMO have two factors - the First and the largest are the left who don't like conservatives but also a sizeable amount from the right.

Where all these polls have misunderestimated (to borrow from the Prez) is that the far right is going to vote even remotely for the left...

Huge assumption to make, huge.

The Left, despite polling data internals to the contrary, think that all moderates hate the Republicans.

Not so.

So for Bell lets say Texas is 50% conservative 20% moderate and 30% liberal.

Of the conservatives 50% dissapprove of Bell and about 30% dissaprove of Strayhorn, and 20% of Perry over HB3.

Of The Moderates 15% dissaprove of Bell and close to the same for Strayhorn but split on Perry. (Giving him is likely vote of 45% even or take a couple of pts to Kinky)

Of the Liberals 10% dissaprove of Bell because he's way too up and down on their issues, but all 30% hate Strayhorn and Perry.

If you look at it the Conservative crossover only applies to Strayhorn and its slowly shifting back to Perry not its going to go to Bell and never was.

So in the end the protest vote really isn't a protest vote its just an old fashioned choice.

Because in a race between Perry and Bell it would be 60-40

A Race between Perry and Strayhorn would have been 55 - 45 as dems would be disinclined to vote (reason bell got into race to keep a Republian sweep of congressional offices)

I guess my point is now matter how unpopular the Republican could be perceived to be the Dems are dead in Texas except for gerrymandering

Posted by EricPWJohnson @ 11/07/06 03:57 AM


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