Bonilla just needs to survive

Gary Martin has a column in the San Antonio Express-News:

Henry Bonilla's ambition to serve in the U.S. Senate could crumble next week if he fails to win his re-election bid without a runoff.

And political analysts say that could be a difficult goal.

Color me unconvinced. All Bonilla needs to do is survive this election to keep his hopes alive.

What will determine the next junior Senator from Texas? In the last few cycles, there's been some direction from above (how's that for Note-like allusion?). Presumably, that will continue to be a factor. But the main thing that will determine whether Bonilla becomes the next Senator is whether he can raise the money necessary for a Congressman to win a statewide primary. Under federal campaign finance law, that depends largely on the people who are willing to call their rich friends and tell them go give money to political candidates. These people are astute enough to realize that Bonilla has a tough district in a tough cycle. Whether he wins by 1 point or 10 points -- with or without a runoff -- is so much less important than whether he wins.

Posted by Evan @ 11/05/06 06:13 PM


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