The Chron poll

The Houston Chronicle/KHOU have released their pre-election poll, done by Zogby. Of note, I'm fairly certain that every cycle from 2000 until now have been Murray/Stein, so the Chron has decided to change pollsters.

Here're their results:

Perry 38%
Bell 22%
Strayhorn 21%
Friedman 11%
Werner 1%

Another data point. I'm still feeling okay about my prediction, and will resist the urge to rejigger it.

You can read the polling script, or go see the crosstabs they've made available at the main site.

They also have some CD22 results:

36% Lampson
28% Sekula-Gibbs

Sekula-Gibbs might get 30% of the vote. Maybe. I doubt it. Polling this is pretty difficult, and I'm not a fan of the way they polled it. [Read the script here]. I'd have asked the questions differently.

I know the NRCC has spent quite a bit (over a million) in this race, so maybe they're seeing something in their more sophisticated polling. But I still don't buy it.

Posted by Evan @ 10/30/06 12:01 AM

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Comments

Shelley Sekula Gibbs did not get 35% of the vote in this poll. "Write-in" got 35%, of which SSG got 79%. So that puts her at 27.6%. Additionally, I imagine the sample size of 177 voters who said they would write-in a candidate must have a higher margin of error than the poll as a whole.

Click on "Complete Results for District 22 poll" on the left hand side of the article to see the breakdown of write-in candidates.

Posted by Ryan Goodland @ 10/30/06 08:56 AM

Err... I meant right hand side of the article.

Posted by Ryan Goodland @ 10/30/06 08:57 AM

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