School finance and special sessions

Chris Elam has an insightful post on school finance and Perry's problem of brokering a deal between Craddick, Dewhurst, and the votes behind each leader.

Let's examine the motivations behind these men's comments and attempt to gain an informed insight.

Rick Perry, as you may have heard, faces a tough battle for his job in the upcoming. He stands to lose a lot of political support by being perceived as the man who failed to broker a deal on school finance. Therefore, as Charlie K. points out, he will take every opportunity to blame the House for dragging their feet. But, if a deal is reached, he will be quick to take credit for creating consensus. GOP primary voters are certain to respond to either situation... and, as Perry hopes, they will forget last May's worst shutout in Aggie history.

David Dewhurst, is rumored to be a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated by Kay Bailey Hutchison. It can be argued that it is to his benefit if Perry is weakened (even short-term) this summer by a special session collapse because that will entice KBH out of the Senate and into the Governor's mansion. It can also be argued that its to his benefit to be seen completely immersing himself in the negotiations and forcing the Legislature to reach a compromise. Then, like Perry, smile big, send out self-congratulatory e-mails to your campaign list about the special session accomplishments, and pray like heck that you have more cash on hand than Henry Bonilla.

Tom Craddick... well. He gets to play kingmaker. As Chas K. pointed out earlier, he is the man with the least to fear from Texas voters and his peers in the House. Today, the Waco Tribune-Herald reports that Craddick has locked up enough votes to assure his re-election as Speaker in the next session. He enjoys a certain job security, that Perry and Dewhurst can only dream of. He obviously feels no pressure to shoulder the load for either man. Therefore, I tend to think that his words carry, and will continue to carry, the most credence in the press - and his wishes will be the end result.

There's one important motivation that I think Chris forgot: Dewhurst isn't happy about the perception around the Capitol that Craddick rolls him every time they disagree.

One might wonder of KBH: can she do better with Craddick and his legislators?

One further thought: I don't know why Perry keeps saying that special session is likely. Is he trying to put pressure on Craddick? Craddick certainly seems to this outsider to be oblivious to pressure.

Perry is in a tough spot: he wants a deal, presumably both for his own political health and for Texas' future. He certainly wants to appears to have done everything possible. But the writing seems to be on the wall that school finance reform is dead.

If Perry calls a special session again and fails to get a deal, I think it looks very bad for him. Unless he gets Craddick and Dewhurst to agree, he should probably stop mentioning special sessions.

Posted by Evan @ 06/02/05 09:47 AM

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