This was pre-primary, but Burnt Orange Report journal-ist Kevin C reports on a Q&A with Michael Baselice, who's Perry's pollster.
I asked him what he thought about the Kinky and Carol campaigns and he said his numbers show that they will hurt Democrats more than they will hurt Perry. Right now, Texas is about 50% Republican, 35% Democrat and 15% Independent. As long as those two are in the race and draw any voters away from the Democratic candidate, the Democrat will lose because there are simply not enough votes available for them. A Democrat might be able to pull 10% from the Republican 50%, but it's just as likely that Perry will pull in 10% of Democrats. With Kinky and Carol in the race, there just isn't enough of the pie left for the Democratic candidate to win because Kinky and/or Carol will take many independents, some Democrats and some Republicans. Perry can afford to lose some votes, Gammage or Bell cannot. Note that Baselice thinks Bell will win the Dem primary outright.
I agree that Perry will end up winning.
I believe another factor will be other high profile races, such as DeLay, and Edwards' seats.
If the Republicans can pick up a congresisonal or two, it will only boost Perry's numbers.
Still-I am worried that Carol will be able to pull enough...
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