Royal Masset: Perry a 9:1 favorite

Republican consultant and Quorum Report contributor Royal Masset writes that he thinks Rick Perry has a 90% chance of winning.

His breakdown:

Rick Perry 40%
Carole Strayhorn 30%
Felix Alvarado 25%
Kinky Friedman 5%
Masset thinks Alvarado will win the Democratic primary like Victor Morales, whose underfunded campaign had strong enough support largely from Hispanics to beat two Congressman in 1996.

What's interesting to me is that Masset predicts 90% chance for Perry, but then spends much of his analysis hedging his bets by writing how Strayhorn will run a strong campaign.

Posted by Evan @ 01/17/06 04:27 PM


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What exactly is Masset basing his prediction of Alvarado on? Did he acknowledge the fact that Bell has been piling up endorsements from every prominent Hispanic officeholder in Texas (here's <a href="">today's</a> endorsement), or did he skip over that? I have to say, I have a hard time taking that kind of analysis seriously.

Posted by Charles Kuffner @ 01/17/06 10:21 PM

Paul Burka explains better than I why Alvarado will probably win. I seem to recall that Bryant had all the Hispanic endorsements in 1996. Endorsements don't always carry much weight

Posted by Royal Masset @ 01/18/06 11:06 PM

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