Royal Masset: Perry a 9:1 favorite
Republican consultant and Quorum Report contributor Royal Masset writes that he thinks Rick Perry has a 90% chance of winning.
His breakdown:
Rick Perry 40%Masset thinks Alvarado will win the Democratic primary like Victor Morales, whose underfunded campaign had strong enough support largely from Hispanics to beat two Congressman in 1996.
Carole Strayhorn 30%
Felix Alvarado 25%
Kinky Friedman 5%
What's interesting to me is that Masset predicts 90% chance for Perry, but then spends much of his analysis hedging his bets by writing how Strayhorn will run a strong campaign.
Posted by Evan @ 01/17/06 04:27 PM
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What exactly is Masset basing his prediction of Alvarado on? Did he acknowledge the fact that Bell has been piling up endorsements from every prominent Hispanic officeholder in Texas (here's <a href="http://www.chrisbell.com/bl...">today's</a> endorsement), or did he skip over that? I have to say, I have a hard time taking that kind of analysis seriously.
Posted by Charles Kuffner @ 01/17/06 10:21 PM
Paul Burka explains better than I why Alvarado will probably win. I seem to recall that Bryant had all the Hispanic endorsements in 1996. Endorsements don't always carry much weight
Posted by Royal Masset @ 01/18/06 11:06 PM
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