The prognosticators

As promised in the last post, here is a little roundup of prognosications.

Among Democratic hopefuls, former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell said through a spokesman, "In this crowd, it's going to be pretty obvious that Chris Bell is the only candidate offering new ideas about how to get Texas headed in the right direction."

Another Democratic candidate, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Bob Gammage of Llano, called Strayhorn's decision bad news for Perry and great news for Texas.

"This guarantees that (Perry) will have two strong opponents shedding light on his shortcomings all the way to November," he said.

2. Chron -- Ratcliffe and Robison:

The two top Democrats in the race — Chris Bell and Bob Gammage — praised Strayhorn's decision as a positive step for Texas and their own campaigns.

"The current Republican leadership has turned its back on the needs of our families and children," said Gammage. "Strayhorn's defection is just the beginning of an exodus of thinking and caring Republicans from the ranks of a badly served GOP."

Bell spokesman Jason Stanford said having two independents in the race against Perry will help a Democrat like Bell.

"All Chris Bell has to do to win is get Democrats to vote for a Democrat," Stanford said.

3. Hoppe and Slater in the DMN:

Perry aides dismissed it as the desperate stunt of a flailing candidate.

By running as an independent, Mrs. Strayhorn avoids an almost certain loss to Mr. Perry in the March 7 GOP primary. Her aides hope that the more moderate general-election voters in November will be receptive to her cross-party appeal.

"Otherwise, she's dead right after the Republican primary. Now she lives on to fight another day," said Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist at the University of Texas. "This is the only way she can stay alive, and she's putting the best face on it."

Democratic consultant Chuck McDonald said the decision, announced just hours before the deadline for candidates to file to run in party primaries, presents Mr. Perry with both good news and bad.

"The good news is this is an admission by her that she can't beat him," he said. "But it also means he's going to have Carole Strayhorn bashing him over the head until November."

...

"Obviously, the present leadership has had enough chances to do that and have failed," said Dallas lawyer Michael Boone, a Republican who supports Mrs. Strayhorn. "I believe she will bring new light on this issue."

GOP consultant Bill Miller said anything can happen over time, but barring the catastrophic, Mr. Perry appears unbeatable.

"For him, he's in that enviable position where all he has to do is not make mistakes, not lose the race. It's his race, right now, to win," Mr. Miller said.

Republicans are ignoring a rising exasperation with politics as usual, pocked by scandal and corruption, said Mike Lavigne, a Democratic public relations consultant.

"To beat Rick Perry, you need the perfect storm of voter outrage," he said. "But this is politics. No storm is too far off."

He said the Democratic contender will point to "corruption, corruption, corruption," including the money laundering indictment of former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and a trip to the Bahamas Mr. Perry took last year with top donors.

Criticism was swift from the Texas Republican Party. State GOP Chairman Tina Benkiser issued a statement dismissing "Carole's one-night stand with Republicans" and removed her photograph from the wall at state GOP headquarters.

Mrs. Strayhorn switched from the Democratic Party to the GOP in 1985. Mr. Perry, who also began his political career as a Democrat, became a Republican in 1989.

George Strake, former chairman of the Texas Republican Party, echoed a common GOP refrain that Mrs. Strayhorn was a political opportunist who had "abandoned the principles" of the party.

...

Spokesmen for both Democrats said Mrs. Strayhorn's decision helps their campaigns.

Spokesman Jason Stanford said Mr. Bell "looks pretty good in a four-way race that includes a flawed and vulnerable incumbent and two extra campaigns trying to sack the castle."

Mr. Gammage said: "This guarantees that Rick Perry will have two strong opponents shedding light on his shortcomings all the way to November."

Mr. Friedman's campaign director, Dean Barkley, said it would be up to voters to decide who is the true independent: "Kinky Friedman, who has never been a Democrat or a Republican, or Carole, who has been both."

4. News 8 Austin:

“Rather than spend money trying to drive up turnout [in the primary], it makes more sense for her to deliver a message to Republican voters,” political analyst Harvey Kronberg said.

Perry does have considerable strength among Republican primary voters.

"If you look at polling out there, the governor does much better among traditional Republican primary voters than he does among general population voters," Kronberg said.

Posted by Evan @ 01/03/06 09:53 AM

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