Obama's man in Texas
Dan Balz writes up Wendy Davis' helter-skelter campaign for the Washington Post. It has some truly impressive quotes from Obama's Man In Texas.
Without doing anything, Democrats say, they expect to see their vote totals grow slowly over time
Well, at least we have something to measure them against. However, this has been a standard refrain for about 15 years. You might recall that Tony Sanchez even dropped $80 million in 2002 (105 million in 2014 dollars) to test out whether there was any validity to this theory.
Jeremy Bird, who set up Battleground Texas, said there is a path to victory for Davis: turning out registered minority voters who often stay home; registering unregistered minority voters; and attracting the support of suburban white women. She will do better among African Americans and Hispanics than the polls now show, he said.
Everything about this paragraph is amusing. The Obama staffer from up North has figured it a path to victory. It has just 3 easy parts:
1. turnout registered minorities
2. register unregistered minorities
3. win suburban white woman
Maybe Steve and Amber Mostyn are fooled by this, but to the rest of us this sounds preposterous.
Turnout registered minorities? You mean, white liberal Wendy Davis of the abortion filibuster is going to convince "minorities" to turnout to vote more than Obama did? Keep in mind that Bird's definition of minorities means that most of the group is Latino.
Register unregistered minorities
Yes, not only is Wendy Davis is going to succeed where Obama failed when it comes to turnout, but she's also going to find people who don't care enough about voting to even register, and she's going to convince them to register AND vote.
Jeremy Bird failed so well in South Texas in the primary that he'd really like it if you gave him another few million dollars to try again. [Maybe Steve Mostyn will sue him for malpractice?]
Win suburban white women
Yes, abortion radical Wendy Davis is going to do the previous two things...and then get weak Republican suburban white woman to vote...for Wendy Davis?
Someone has been spending too much time in Austin. The first two parts were at least correlated. But the third is uncorrelated at best with the first two, and probably negatively correlated. Some messaging needles can't be threaded, especially when you've got a voting record as liberal as Wendy Davis.
BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!
Abbott, they argue, is more conservative and less skilled as a politician than the man he seeks to replace, Gov. Rick Perry, and has been thrown on the defensive repeatedly during the campaign.
This is rich. Maybe Jeremy Bird was too busy working for Howard Dean, John Kerry and Barack Obama to notice that all of his predecessors have spent the last 15 years labeling Rick Perry as an extremist and an idiot. Governor Goodhair, Governor 39%, etc etc. "He wasn't elected to governor, he has no chance in 2002 against a Bush fundraiser who will throw money at the race." "He only won 39%, he's dead." "He only won in 2006 because Kay decided she Washington, DC needed her." "Kay will destroy him in 2010"
The list could go on forever.
But now that Rick Perry is leaving, they want to forget "oops" and lionize Governor Perry as the opposite of everything they've said for the last 15 years.
Eses Norteños agrandados tendrían que pasar algunos años más en Texas antes de pensar que aún tienen idea de cómo pensamos en Texas.
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