Instead of analyzing, just blame variance

Hart, SAEN:

Most analysts say Dewhurst simply was unlucky in his loss to Cruz, which largely can be attributed to a court ruling on redistricting, which postponed the Republican primary from March until May.

That is shockingly inane. You don't spend 20 million bucks of your fortune and then "simply [be] unlucky" when you start out as an overwhelming favorite in the horserace polls. If your analyst/lobbyist suggests anything of the sort, you should fire him/her and cancel any outstanding payments.

It's worth pointing out that before the campaign began, the smart money thought that a Dewhurst defeat was eminently possible. However, Austin-centric conventional wisdom (mostly lobbyists) thought Dewhurst was guaranteed to win (see here, 90% right before the primary here and even more ridiculously right before the runoff. Or even worse, this bit of hilariously bad analysis from Bob Stein)

Dewhurst never cracked 45% in any horserace poll of Republican primary voters. That's not simply bad luck. As one "analyst" once wrote, "Even though [Republican primary voters] think Dewhurst often makes the right decisions, they often feel like they have to push him to get there."

Posted by Evan @ 03/31/13 03:39 PM


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