2012 Texas Senate primary prediction
I had to go on the record about 10 days ago when I got asked for my prediction. My response then was, "David Dewhurst won't break 45%." In the days that followed, the TT, BOR, and PPP polls came out. I didn't see anything that changed my mind much.
The big X factor is how people react to David Dewhurst's Al Sharpton-style race-baiting, and the subsequent newspaper coverage. Dewhurst was long-rumored to be contemplating the race card, and play the race card he did. We're in ugly and uncharted territory. And Dewhurst is spending twice as much on a weekly basis as KBH and Perry did in 2010.
So here we go:
Everyone else 4%
Ted Cruz, a Constitutionist and not a day too soon. Send Mrs. Granger home, a party hack if there ever was one.
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