538: Bill White has 14% chance to win, down from 17%

Nate Silver now has Bill White with just a 14% chance to win in November, down from 17% the last time he pressed 'enter' on his computer's Monte Carlo simulations.

What is interesting is that most of the polling inputs to Silver's model have changed. The last time Silver published his models' findings, he had White with a 17% chance to win. However, most of that was based off of Rasmussen polls. This time, Silver is largely using the TT internet poll, PPP, and Zogby, with just a soupcon of Rasmussen thrown in for flavoring.

If you think Rasmussen is a better 2010 pollster than all of the above (as I do), then Silver's model would probably push White down into the single digits.

Posted by Evan @ 09/16/10 06:49 AM


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