Winners and losers of primary season 2010

Winners

The Democratic establishment
Recent Senate primaries have made the case that the Democratic establishment backing wasn't worth much. Radnofsky couldn't avoid a runoff against a guy who didn't campaign in 2006. Bentsen and Kirk ran behind Victor Morales in 2002 (though Kirk came from behind to take the runoff), and Victor Morales upset two long-time congressman in 96 as well. Though establishment candidate Tony Sanchez won in 2002, it doesn't really count, as Morales had been MIA for a few years, Sanchez spent tens of millions more than Morales, and in retrospect Morales appears to have been running only to fight off the corruption charges that would send him to jail for a few years. So for White to avoid the runoff so convincingly was a good sign that they can still be worth something in primaries.

Me
I started this blog by saying that the media had it all wrong. Despite universal agreement among Texas media in early 2005 that Hutchison was the overwhelming favorite, I said she wasn't even the favorite. No one believed me. I've now been proven correct twice -- once when she ran and once when she didn't. Plus I applied to work at a venture capital fund recently, so clairvoyance can't hurt my application!

Rick Perry
Duh? He beat the state's previously most popular politician, and not just beat her but overwhelmed her. He even avoided a runoff. Obviously he really wanted to convince Kay not to run, but short of that, this was about as good a result as can be imagined.

Bill White
Avoided a runoff by a long shot. I've said a million times that I'm not expert on the Democratic primary, but there was substantial doubt among other analysts as well that he would avoid a runoff. He did by alot.

Straus
I haven't added up the numbers conclusively, but he appears to have the votes to get re-elected Speaker. He lost some folks like Delwin Jones and Brian McCall, but I think he'll

Ted Cruz
Intuitively you would put him in the losers section, right? The shuffle didn't happen and he now has no office to run for. On the other hand, he's known by activists, he's got seven figures in the bank, and he's shown that he'll be a force to be reckoned with in the future. I for sure wouldn't want to be working on an opposing campaign.

Texas Tribune
It's true that they occasionally revealed their left-leaning ownership, but they also were one of the first places to get news...as was DMN's Trailblazers blog.

Losers

Debra Medina
I'm cutting against the grain on this one, as most people would say she helped herself. But did she help herself with anyone in her party who will still be around in 6 years? Color me skeptical. For someone who is already not even close to being within the mainsteram of Republican thought, she managed to repeatedly let us know that she was okay having people around her who deny the Holocaust question whether 9/11 was directed by former President Bush.

The Bushies
In the ongoing Perry vs Bush cold war (both sides would deny the existence), this proxy battle in Afghanistan was won by Perry (who plays Charlie Wilson?). George HW Bush, Jim Baker, and Dick Cheney all came around to endorse Kay Bailey. Many of Bush's political team was (theoretically) advising KBH informally. But the Bushies who have come home from DC won't be running things for at least another four years...

Kay Bailey Hutchison
Is there really anything left to say that hasn't been said? She didn't articulate a reason why people should make her governor. I refuse to rehash the rest.

Political Junkies
For a supposed clash of the titans, Rick v Kay really underperformed, didn't it? I would've liked to have seen a stronger performance from Kay, but such is life.

Farouk Shami
I took him quite seriously when I learned about him, but wrote him off afterwards when it became obvious that the ship was never seaworthy. It's hard to say whether his consultants took him for a $10+ million ride or whether he ran exactly the campaign he wanted to run because it made him feel important. I'm leaning towards both.

Op-ed boards
Op-ed endorsements are fairly archaic by this point. It's one thing if they get the candidates to sit down, ask them pressing questions and then post the video. That'd be useful! People would watch! Instead a declining industry 100% unanimously backed a candidate who got 30% of the vote writing the same old 3 paragraphs on the side of the editorial page.

Posted by Evan @ 04/16/10 06:14 AM

 
 

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