Barone on the primary

Michael Barone on Rick v. Kay:

(1)Perry won this not in rural and small town Texas but in metro Houston. This bodes well for him in the general election, since it indicates strength in the home base of the well regarded Democratic nominee, former Houston Mayor Bill White, who was nominated by an overwhelming margin.

(2) Medina, the candidate who wouldn’t disrespect the truthers, did best in the supposedly most sophisticated part of Texas, the Metroplex. Go figure.

(3) Hutchison, supposedly the candidate of urban sophisticates, did best in metro San Antonio and rural Texas. She held Perry below the 50% level needed to avoid a runoff in approximately half of Texas’s 254 counties; unfortunately for her, those counties didn't give her nearly a big enough margin to offset Perry’s advantage in metro Houston.

A few minor observations of my own.

1. Medina won 4 counties. So if Texas elections had an electoral college, she would've actually gotten some electoral votes. That is very embarrassing to me. None of those counties were large -- Medina didn't get four figure vote totals in any of them -- but it is an accomplishment, nonetheless.

2. See bolded above. I feel as if there are lots of Austinites feeling a little wounded. And the Houston establishment is muttering, "But I thought Bill White told us we were world class?"

3. Barone later semi-updated his piece, and included a list of primary turnouts over the years. It pretty clearly shows a long-term trend of Texans voting in Republican primaries rather than Democrats. But that's not too surprising, is it?

4. According to Barone, without metro Houston, Perry would be in a runoff.

5. I am always very suspicious of any analysis that mentions comparing votes received in a primary by the two major candidates. There really isn't much predictive power.

Posted by Evan @ 03/04/10 05:36 PM

 
 

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