Pre-election hypothetical

How much do you think national Democrats are wishing they'd found a decent candidate to run against John Cornyn?

I think they're wishing quite a bit. I'll catch some flak for this, but Cornyn has not run a splendid campaign. It hasn't been bad -- aside from that Big Bad John video, ugh -- but it's been a run-out-the-clock type of campaign, in the I-don't-quite-have-a-real-opponent vein.

They wouldn't have had to beat Cornyn, just force the GOP to spend money in Texas, which might increase their chances at Georgia, which is likely to be the deciding factor on whether Democrats get 60 votes.

If you're interested, my current projections have Democrats at 58.5 votes in the Senate. I did a quick and dirty write-up. The short of it is that it's definitely not impossible that Democrats will pull 60 votes in the Senate.

Anybody who isn't a hardcore Democratic partisan should shudder at that thought. Just look how well Republicans did, and just look how fast House Democrats deteriorated in this Congress.

Posted by Evan @ 10/31/08 12:43 AM

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Comments

I have been a voter for 44 years and have never voted for a democrat. I could not vote for Cornyn due to his vote for the bailout. I contacted his office concerning this issue and was assured by a staff member that the senator was opposed to the bill.
I voted for the libertarian.
I cannot support Hutchison in any other campaign for the same reason.
Rick Perry is an embarrassment and is indistinguishable from a run of the democrat.
Glad I found your blog and hope this passes muster.

Posted by Bill O-Wright @ 10/31/08 11:36 AM

Evan,
What qualifications do you have to pontificate on all these political matters? A degree in PoliSci? ok. How many meaningful, legit campaigns have you worked on? How many office holders have you worked for? From where do you draw you basis on how a campaign should be run?

And could you please define what a "splendid campaign" is for us dummies? And maybe explain why Cornyn needed to have run a "splendid campaign" in the first place.

Why would the Dems spend more money in a southern state when they could use that money in Minnesota where the race is tighter?

Posted by Will Shakes @ 10/31/08 01:37 PM

I think the intense interest in the Presidential campaign may provide some interesting results in "down ballot" races. I think Cornyn will prevail, but I do think the margin of victory may be smaller than previous Senate races with a Republican incumbent vs. a Democrat challenger. We may have to change our predictive models after November 4th.

Posted by texasnative @ 10/31/08 04:45 PM

Dear Will,

The amount I feel I have to prove to you is close to zero. Regards.

Posted by evan @ 10/31/08 11:44 PM

Evan

I agree with your analysis, McCain was not someone to rally the Christian conservatives had he done that this would be a narrow win for the Republicans

Palin will be annointed quit quickly the next president - Obama's a one term wonder - too many promises - the hope will fade in 120 days

Posted by EricPWJohnson @ 11/03/08 11:23 PM

Shoudn't the headline read "Pre-election hypothesis"?

Posted by Casey Jones @ 11/04/08 09:44 PM

I am quite amused at Evan's response to Will.

My qualifications are that I'm a citizen. Do I need more? I don't think so. I think a big part of the problem among politicians is that the opinion of the votors are not respected.

Posted by Michael @ 11/06/08 11:49 AM

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