Rick Perry vs World
18 August 2015
Insiders are wrong: Rick Perry won't be the first to drop out
It's been a long time since a real post.
I actually wrote a few real posts over the past months, but got distracted by the kids and never got around to hitting publish. Instead I'm going to do a quick combination of two of those posts "Rick Perry 2016: Quixotic" and "The financial constraint has been removed."
Politico's poll of insiders:
This is in reaction to the news that Perry's campaign is essentially out of money and are no longer paying staffers.
Forty percent of early-state Republicans and nearly half of early-state Democrats believe Rick Perry will be the first candidate to drop out of the presidential race.
Look, as the title of my unpublished post says, Rick Perry running for president in 2016 is quixotic. Perry 2016 always has been impossible: if you couldn't win in 2012 against the weakest field of candidates with the wind at your back, how are you going to win the White House in 2016 running against the strongest ever Republican field of candidates with the wind in your face?
It just ain't gonna happen. Never was. But per the title of the second post: there's no longer a financial constraint.
Though the Perry2016 campaign might be out of money, essentially nothing has changed in the strategy that might make him a contender. From the beginning, his one shot has been to go to Iowa and meet as many caucus participants as possible. Focus on farmers and veterans and hope you're under the radar enough that they don't target you for not supporting ethanol subsidies. Spend all your money in Iowa and see if you can make a go of it.
The financial constraint has always been what ended presidential campaigns. But with the rise of Super PACs, not only is it possible to make a real go of it in a few states, you also have the assurance that you can raise money if you can pull off a surprise and prove yourself viable.
The Super PAC has raised more than $15m, and shouldn't be burning any money right now, so they should have a solid $15m to fund campaign-like activities that don't cross the FEC's fancy legal line. So all the Perry presidential campaign has to do is really fund his travel expenses and maybe a bodyman. Given the email/direct mail lists and relationships he's accumulated over decades of running for office, covering those expenses should be easy. It's not much money.
So is Perry going to be the first to drop out? Dropping out comes down to the candidate's psyche -- but rationally, if you're Rick Perry then you stay the course through Iowa. Nothing has changed: may as well give Iowa a shot. It ain't gonna happen, but then again: a governor from Paint Creek wasn't gonna happen either.
UPDATE: Rick Perry was the first presidential candidate to quit the 2016 campaign.
27 July 2015
"Inside Rand Paul's downward spiral" http://t.co/rLe3uBfMQg It was obvious months ago when they hired (almost) all overrated consultants— Evan PvW (@PerryVsWorld) July 28, 2015
It seems like many do not understand the concept of floors and ceilings.
29 June 2015
Having read the Cruz/Rove emails, it now makes sense why George W Bush wrote a check to Dan Branch for his AG race. #txlege— Evan PvW (@PerryVsWorld) June 29, 2015
It hadn't made sense why GWB stayed out of campaigns, only to quietly -- very quietly -- write a check to Branch. But now it does.
11 May 2015
The other day I drove a few miles in west Harris County and counted 13 signs paid for by the county that had Steve Radack's name on them— Evan PvW (@PerryVsWorld) May 12, 2015
If you drive Katy Hockley Cut Off Rd between 290 and 10, you will see Steve Radack's name on signs over and over and over again.
02 April 2015
Ted Cruz's DrudgeReport ad
Ted Cruz's ad on Drudge right now:
And the call to action second screen:
25 March 2015
Charles CW Cooke nails it:
You grew up in a quasi-monarchy; do you have any discomfort over the prospect of a Bush-Clinton election?
Extreme discomfort. To me, it's unseemly, and it is antithetical to American values.
05 February 2015
So Wendy Davis' first major post-election speech is in Berkeley, California? Maybe she'll run for office out there.— Evan PvW (@PerryVsWorld) February 5, 2015
She'd have a better chance.
08 January 2015
Jason Villalba's progressively thin skin
Dallas state rep Jason Villalba told an audience that Speaker Joe Straus would deliver a "progressive" agenda. That's pretty strange, since that's what liberals have been attempting to rebrand themselves for at least 15 years now. But yet, given a chance to correct a misstatement, Villalba reiterated, "I don't know why progressive is a bad word."
Apparently Jason Villalba wants to make sure Democrats know that Joe Straus is not going to abandon them, as he knew his remarks would get picked up by the press.
As long as Democrats remain 100% unified in their habitual pro-Straus bloc, then the Speaker is likely safe -- unless Republicans decide to stop letting Democrats pick Straus as speaker. Hence why I tweeted:
Less than 5 minutes after I tweeted that:
Jason Villalba blocked me. For a politician, Villalba has some very thin skin.
06 January 2015
El Payaso FFF (prefiere TMF) tiene algunas propagandas
Ferdinand Frank Fischer, also known by his alias "Trey Martinez Fischer" has some interesting ads up.
His English ad is awwwwkkkkwarrdd, but his Spanish ad is quite good. It reminds me of Van de Putte, whose ads were better in Spanish than English. Que torpe.
Every single bit of that ad where "TMF" talks looks fake. It's incredibly overacted by someone who felt really uncomfortable. The head bobbing, the voice oscillations in odd places, all of it. It's strange. They manage to get Bernal in as many shots as possible, even as he doesn't speak to the camera.
So his Spanish actually looks dubbed in to me as the lips don't match the audio on the Youtube video. But that's hard to notice. It's a good ad, and in his brief spoken bits, he's got a better accent than I thought he had (especially when dubbed in?). But even if they dubbed it in, his face actually looks like it might believe what his voice is saying. That's the opposite of the English video, where the words are totally discombobulated from the body movements. It's a pretty solid ad.
I am amused that he takes a shot at Republicans in both videos -- Dan Patrick by name in the English one, and just "Republicans" in the Spanish ad. Nunca deja ser inflamatorio, lo que sea no importa.
04 January 2015
Jeb Bush is definitely running for president
Jeb Bush is definitely running for president:
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, moving closer to a possible presidential run, has resigned all of his corporate and nonprofit board memberships, including with his own education foundation, his office said late Wednesday night.
Bush's New Year's Eve disclosure, coming in an e-mail from an aide to The Washington Post, culminated a string of moves he has made in recent days to shed business interests that have enriched him since leaving office in 2007. The aide said the resignations had been made "effective today."
You don't give up millions of dollars and bury it with a NYE dump unless you're running for president. Especially if you're Jeb Bush, and you candidly spent the last 8 years or so talking about accumulating wealth.
Also, George P running for Land Commish instead of a higher office makes sense. If Jeb had been thinking that there was a good chance he'd run in 2016, he'd want to make sure there was absolutely zero chance of his son losing. [Wouldn't you make sure to fix the typo in your announcement though?]
I am completely against Jeb Bush for president. Our Republic deserves and requires better than Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Clinton/Bush, particularly after Obama's disregard for the Constitution. It's not the sign of a healthy democracy.
Jeb's 2016 positioning is fascinating: it sometimes seems like he wants to run as Mitt Romney, Jr. However, he's running the flip campaign of Mitt. Romney had a pretty bad record as governor, but he tried to run in 08 as the movement conservative guy. Lots of intense wooing of conservative leaders. He got ahead of the curve really early with National Review.
By contrast, Jeb was a more conservative governor than either George W. Bush and Rick Perry, considering that he was in charge of Florida and not Texas. Graded on that curve, it's not even particularly close. However, while W found a way to unite all the different wings of the party, Jeb seems to be trying to irk as many conservative activists as possible.
So now we have four Texans running for president: Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Rick Perry. We'll see how many of them make it to Iowa caucuses.
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