Rick Perry vs. The World
24 November 2008
Energizer bunnies
Over a year and a half ago, I said, "Nick Lampson has a difficult decision to make: quixotic bid for re-election or quixotic bid to unseat Cornyn?"
He wasn't going to beat Cornyn (although perhaps quixotic was a soupcon too strong), but he'd have made it closer than Noriega, which would made Republicans spend money in Texas. As I said all along, including the day before the election, Lampson's bid against Olson was doomed the minute he started running. Quixotic was pretty much the right word.
I do have to quote myself though:
He spent $3.5 million in '06 in a race he couldn't have possibly lost [against a write-in candidate who was a weak candidate at that.]
But Nick Lampson is like Chris Bell. No matter how many times they lose, they'll keep running for something.
Posted by Evan @ 11/24/08 08:57 AM | Comments (0)
21 November 2008
Libertarians think this is the natural end of government
I was formerly involved a little bit with this, so I thought I'd note Robb Walsh's excellent article in the Houston Press:
There's a Texas law that prohibits breweries from selling their beer in their gift shops. Bill Metzger, the publisher of Southwest Brewing News, says it's the worst of many bad beer laws in Texas.
"It doesn't make any sense," he says. "It's like you make a killer brisket at your barbecue joint, and when people come to visit, you have to tell them you can't sell them any. I can't tell you how many small breweries in New York and California have told me that without their gift shop they would go out of business."
Once you subtract retail markup and the distributor's cut, a small brewery sees very little of the price you pay for a six-pack in a supermarket. Fledgling craft breweries don't make enough beer to interest distributors or retailers either, according to Tony Formby, managing partner of Rahr & Sons Brewing Company in Fort Worth. Selling beer for full retail from a gift shop can help a tiny brewery survive.
Yup. Regulations are hindering Texas small businesses in favor of out-of-state brewers. Good job, Texas legislature!
Posted by Evan @ 11/21/08 08:09 AM | Comments (0)
20 November 2008
Dewhurst the first to see the light
Renu Khator gained a new supporter Friday in her push to make the University of Houston a nationally ranked research university.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst said he will support the school as "a great selection for a Tier 1 university."
Dewhurst was among almost a dozen speakers this afternoon at a formal ceremony celebrating Khator's installation at chancellor of the UH system and president of its central campus.
He didn't provide any details about how the state might help the university achieve its goals, but he did note that Khator has been fiercely determined about the goal since taking the job in January.
An idea long past its due.
Posted by Evan @ 11/20/08 11:17 PM | Comments (0)
Is it me...
or is the rumor mill slowing for a Charlie Stenholm appointment in Obama's administration?
Posted by Evan @ 11/20/08 10:21 PM | Comments (0)
12 November 2008
Carole Strayhorn is running for office....again
You're surprised . . . right? You're not? KVUE:
Carole Keeton Strayhorn has reportedly taken the first step towards running for mayor of Austin.
The Quorum Report says the former state comptroller has filed paperwork and designated a treasurer for her campaign.
Did you ever doubt that she'd be back? And how much do you think her positions will...evolve...this race.
Posted by Evan @ 11/12/08 10:32 PM | Comments (0)
07 November 2008
And then they came back
I'm fascinated to see what happens when the Bushies come back to Texas. By that, I don't mean W and Laura. I mean all the rest of the Texans up in DC. Sure, some are already back or never left -- Rove, Hughes, Dowd, McKinnon, etc -- but it will be interesting to see how and when they engage at a state level.
Posted by Evan @ 11/07/08 03:19 PM | Comments (0)
05 November 2008
No term limits for governor of Texas
Interpret this for me. Lots of google hits on this page over the past few days for some variation of "rick perry term limits."
Don't know what that means, but I will provide an answer: there are no term limits for governor in the idyllic state of Texas.
Posted by Evan @ 11/05/08 07:06 PM | Comments (0)
Why bring back the blog?
It should be fairly evident why I'm bringing back the blog: Rick Perry versus the World might actually happen this time. Now that that silly little presidential election is out of the way, we can focus on the fun stuff: the coming heavyweight primary between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison.
In the entire period of the GOP ascendancy in Texas, there hasn't been a single high-profile primary. The closest we've come was probably the 1998 Attorney General primary between Cornyn, Pauken and Williamson -- that result had some ramifications, didn't it?
It remains to be seen whether it will really happen. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison has feinted several times that she was ready to return home and run for governor, only to jump out of the race. Last cycle she actually went out and hired a campaign staff, but facing a field that included Carole Strayhorn, she took another pass. It would've been a close race, but Perry was the favorite.
Perry surprised some people when he announced that he planned to run for re-election. There are those who think he is merely posturing to avoid being a lame duck for the upcoming legislative session. I wouldn't discount that 100%, but my view of Perry is that is he absolutely planning on running for re-election.
As for known unknowns, we'll see what David Dewhurst does. Most assume that he will wait to see what shakes out -- that is, does Hutchison give up her Senate seat? -- but then the conventional wisdom was that Carole Strayhorn was going to
Should be fun.
It remains to be seen what my posting schedule will be like. I have no commitments to myself on how often I'll post.
Posted by Evan @ 11/05/08 02:45 PM | Comments (0)
04 November 2008
Asymmetrical responses to the W
When George W. Bush left Texas in 2000, he had transformed Texas from a competitive two-party state into an overwhelmingly monolithic Republican state.
When George W. Bush left DC in 2009, DC had become the most Democratic in over a generation.
Books are being written about this, I can guarantee you that.
Posted by Evan @ 11/04/08 03:45 PM | Comments (0)
Overlooked in the race for Craddick vs the World
The polls recently opened, but the result has already been a foregone conclusion for a week: Obama wins by a landslide (7% or so), Dems get to 58 or 59 seats in the Senate, and about 265 seats in the House. There's a pretty high probability that those numbers are pretty close to right: this is not an election where the result is in doubt. Closer to home, Cornyn survives reasonably handily though with less than he should have. Were I him, I'd be thinking hard about 6 years from now. Olsen beats Lampson in a result that was foreordained. Lampson wonders why he wasted $2 million against Shelley 2 years ago. Doh!
There are some interesting Texas Senate races on the plate, but if you're reading this blog you probably know the most interesting races are in the Texas House. Specifically, do Texas Democrats regain the majority or come close enough to knock off Tom Craddick as Speaker?
Seems to me that no one has factored in the bloodletting that is going to occur in the Republican Party. There's tons of dissatisfaction nationally. That's perhaps attenuated by the fact that Texas is still a Republican state and hasn't tasted the defeat of Republicans like in other states. But there is plenty of upset activists. Many folks identify identify with one of the big 3 -- Craddick, Dewhurst and Perry -- and aren't happy with a different member of the big 3. Mix dissatisfaction with factionalism and what do you get?
That's the sort of thing that could bring down Craddick. We'll see; leadership elections are the most fascinating of all.
Posted by Evan @ 11/04/08 12:36 PM | Comments (0)
03 November 2008
Dynasties are bad
Here's something to celebrate, whether you're a Republican or a Democrat: no dynasties this year.
* For the first time since 1972, there is not a Bush or a Dole on the Republican ticket.
* We won't go Bush - Clinton - Bush - Clinton in a succession that would make us look like a downward-spiralling dysfunctional democracy.
Posted by Evan @ 11/03/08 05:48 PM | Comments (0)
31 October 2008
Pre-election hypothetical
How much do you think national Democrats are wishing they'd found a decent candidate to run against John Cornyn?
I think they're wishing quite a bit. I'll catch some flak for this, but Cornyn has not run a splendid campaign. It hasn't been bad -- aside from that Big Bad John video, ugh -- but it's been a run-out-the-clock type of campaign, in the I-don't-quite-have-a-real-opponent vein.
They wouldn't have had to beat Cornyn, just force the GOP to spend money in Texas, which might increase their chances at Georgia, which is likely to be the deciding factor on whether Democrats get 60 votes.
If you're interested, my current projections have Democrats at 58.5 votes in the Senate. I did a quick and dirty write-up. The short of it is that it's definitely not impossible that Democrats will pull 60 votes in the Senate.
Anybody who isn't a hardcore Democratic partisan should shudder at that thought. Just look how well Republicans did, and just look how fast House Democrats deteriorated in this Congress.
Posted by Evan @ 10/31/08 12:43 AM | Comments (7)
29 October 2008
I could approve this message
The Chron does local reporting!
Rice University and Baylor College of Medicine have begun holding serious discussions that could lead to a merger of the state's top private university and one of the country's best medical schools.
A merger would bring Rice the reputational enhancement it has long desired and Baylor the security of a university affiliation, which is often necessary to keep medical schools afloat financially. Baylor is one of only nine stand-alone medical schools in the United States.
Posted by Evan @ 10/29/08 06:01 PM | Comments (0)
The second coming
For those of you who enjoyed this little corner of commentary on Texas politics, I am planning on an imminent return for the blog.
Posted by Evan @ 10/29/08 08:17 AM | Comments (0)
08 July 2008
Can anyone tell me what John McCain's message matrix is?
I didn't think so. Obama is eminently beatable, but McCain isn't doing it right now.
Posted by Evan @ 07/08/08 03:36 AM | Comments (1)
13 June 2008
Dumb
John McCain is opening an office in Jersey:
For the first time in 16 years, a Republican presidential campaign is opening New Jersey headquarters and paying for full-time staffers in the state , a sign that John McCain thinks he can win here.In another sign, McCain is also scheduled to hold a town hall meeting in Pemberton on Friday in his third trip to the state this year.
Oh. my. gosh. wow. dumb.
If I were John McCain's strategist, I'd have a very simple rule. If I couldn't see a mountain, I wouldn't hold an event and I wouldn't air ads. With the exception of Florida and Northern Virginia and some other scattered ones as well, this would hold pretty well.
Posted by Evan @ 06/13/08 08:44 AM | Comments (0)
11 June 2008
A big thank you to the Democratic Party...
...for not nominating Hillary Clinton. I think political dynasties add significant risk to the long-term stability of democracies.
And hey, even though it was only a tie (that was broken by better tactical decisions by her opponent), there were enough Democrats out there who didn't want to turn the US into a state of political dynasty. Good on them.
Posted by Evan @ 06/11/08 12:40 AM | Comments (1)
09 June 2008
Things I know about the general election:
1. McCain and his campaign overstate the degree to which the American people know his bio.
2. McCain and his campaign circulate with too many politicos who remember what a thorn he has been in Bush's side. The American people don't remember.
3. The map will largely be the same. I've said this for the last 6 months until I was blue in the face, while many very smart people were saying silly things about the map was going to change.
4. If Obama is elected president, he will rival Jimmy Carter for incompetent governing (although let's hope he deregulates some things like Jimmy...though don't bet on Obama having any libertarian impulses.) and serve only one term.
5. As I've said many times, Obama has much more variability as a general election candidate than any candidate I can remember. He could crash and burn worse than Dukakis, or he could sweep Democrats to 60 votes in the Senate. Still, in terms of probability, Obama benefits from such a fantastically fabulous political climate for Democrats that he is a slight favorite. If he weren't such a miserable general election candidate, he'd be a shoo-in. [In fairness, Edwards and Clinton are also pretty bad general election candidates.]
6. I do not envy McCain's dance with Bush. He needs to run as far away as possible. If I were running the McCain campaign, I would be looking for every single potential break I could have with Bush.
7. Barack Obama will continue to get a pass on being the most liberal member of the Senate. Can you imagine if the Republicans nominated Tom Coburn? Every article would declare that the nominee was known as an "arch-conservative." Barack Obama gets to slip by without the liberal label. Ladies and gentleman, the political media of America. Heart them.
8. McCain has a bit of variability in him as a candidate as well. It is not impossible that he could blow up.
9. McCain brings quite a bit of variability as president. He could be fantastic as president, he could be as bad as Jimmy Carter or Harding, or he could die in office after a year.
10. I will shed no tears if McCain loses, though I will fear for my country.
11. It would be very exciting to have a black president. The very likely prospect of the first black president being an epic failure is a sad inherent risk to that excitement.
12. Our first view of President Obama are his actions on campaign finance. Remember that pledge he made to take public money?
13. Number 13 is something I have no idea about. Barack Obama has arguably organized his campaign around the idea that he can transcend politics in order to get things done ("Yes We Can"/"Change We Can Believe In"). Yet, arguably, he has never done this in his life. Yes, there is a Republican state senator he's best buds with (but didn't actually like him enough to endorse him, if I recall correctly). John McCain has an excellent track record of working across the aisle to get things done. Comparing the time while they have both been senators provides a massive contrast.
When you organize your campaign around a flawed principle, you very well might lose. (John Kerry: I served in Vietnam; Hillary Clinton's "ready on day 1", HW Bush's experience.)
If I get around to it, maybe I'll discuss some of these points.
Posted by Evan @ 06/09/08 03:18 AM | Comments (0)
21 May 2008
If you've been paying attention, you'd note that there's a non-negligible (though still small) possibility that we could have a filibuster-proof Democratic supermajority in the US Senate starting in January 2009.
That should make you very, very scared.
Posted by Evan @ 05/21/08 09:40 PM | Comments (2)
15 May 2008
Just a thought: if Democrats like Biden and Pelosi had simply ignored Bush's comments to the Knesset, instead of exploding in response, would anyone have noticed Bush's comments?
I don't know if Bush's comments in Israel were about Obama, but even assuming they were*, haven't they just made Obama's apparent wish-washiness on Israel front page news? The Obama campaign is already worried about its relationship with American Jewish voters because of previous Obama comments.
*It's easy to assume they were about Obama, but it's also pretty common for Bush to go to the "Others say..." line as a way of countering counter-arguments. Since he was apparently arguing against this position, it's perhaps not so clear that they were about Obama. Plus, there's a pretty strong tradition that foreign policy disagreements end at the water's edge. Still, ol' Biden and Pelosi have managed to ensure that it will filter down to voters as Obama's weakness to voters. Doesn't sound like good politics to me.
Posted by Evan @ 05/15/08 03:00 PM | Comments (0)
[Previous 20 Entries]
SITE MENU
+ Rick Perry vs World
+ About Me
+ Archives
+ Contact
+ PDA Friendly
ADVERTISING
SEARCH
THE CANDIDATES '06
Republicans
+ Rick Perry
Democrats
+ Chris Bell
+ Bob Gammage
+ Rashad Jafer
Independents
+ Kinky Friedman
+ Carole Keeton Strayhorn
Italics indicates a failed primary bid.
SYNDICATION
DISCLAIMER
All content © 2005, Perry vs. World and the respective authors.
Perry vs. World is powered by Nucleus.
Site design and Nucleus customization by Kevin Whited. Graphic design by Chris Elam